沪铜涨幅收窄 十万关口得而复失【12月29日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - The copper market experienced fluctuations with prices initially rising above 100,000 yuan per ton but later retreating due to a decrease in market optimism and increasing social inventory [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On Friday night, copper prices rose, breaking the 100,000 yuan per ton mark, but closed with a narrower increase of 0.76% as market sentiment cooled [1] - The optimism in the market diminished, leading to a decline in copper prices, which followed the trend of precious metals [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The previous rise in copper prices was supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and quantitative easing, resulting in a low U.S. dollar index and a surge in precious metals [1] - However, ongoing risk warnings from domestic and foreign exchanges have led to increased volatility in precious metals, further dampening market sentiment [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain weak, indicating a persistent tight supply situation [1] - Despite rising copper prices, downstream purchasing demand is low, leading to an ongoing expansion of spot discounts and accumulation of social inventory [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, the macroeconomic environment remains supportive due to the Fed's actions, allowing copper to maintain a strong trend [1] - Low inventory levels and resilient demand provide support for prices, but high price levels may suppress some physical buying, and the approaching year-end may lead to a seasonal decline in demand, potentially resulting in inventory accumulation [1]