国投证券：有机硅行业协同减产 供给反内卷与需求超预期

Core Viewpoint - The organic silicon industry is experiencing a price rebound due to a consensus on production reduction and supervision mechanisms reached in a series of collaborative meetings starting from November 2025, with prices rising from 11,000 yuan/ton to 13,700 yuan/ton by December 26 [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Supply Dynamics - The domestic organic silicon capacity expansion cycle is gradually coming to an end, with capacity increasing from 1.515 million tons in 2019 to 3.44 million tons in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 17.8% [2]. - The industry concentration is expected to continue increasing, with the CR4 reaching 54.7% by 2025, establishing a "one strong, many strong" market structure that supports collaborative efforts [2]. - If the production reduction is strictly implemented, it may accelerate the phase-out of outdated capacities and lead to a healthier and more stable operational level in the industry, benefiting leading manufacturers [2]. Group 2: Demand Structure and Growth Potential - The demand structure for organic silicon is undergoing optimization, with traditional construction applications decreasing from 33.1% in 2021 to 25.2% in 2024, while emerging sectors are experiencing rapid growth [4]. - In the first 11 months of 2025, the photovoltaic cell production reached 636.9 GW, a year-on-year increase of 30%, potentially driving an additional demand of 14,000 tons for photovoltaic sealants [4]. - The production of new energy vehicles exceeded 12 million units in the first 11 months of 2025, which could lead to an additional demand of 6,600 tons of organic silicon [4]. - The composite insulator field in the power system is expected to contribute an additional demand of 1,900 tons of organic silicon [4]. Group 3: Supply-Demand Balance - The organic silicon supply-demand structure is anticipated to reach a turning point, with projected supply-demand gaps of -1.9 million tons, -29.4 million tons, and -18.4 million tons from 2025 to 2027, respectively, indicating a potential correction of supply-demand mismatches caused by the expansion cycle [5].