Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-29 08:32Core Viewpoint - The report from Cinda Securities indicates that Tmall (06110) has experienced a high single-digit decline in total sales for its retail and wholesale business in Q3 of the fiscal year 2025/26, aligning with previous performance guidance trends [1] Group 1: Retail and Wholesale Performance - Retail business continues to outperform wholesale, with controllable discount and inventory situations reflecting strong retail management capabilities [2] - The decline in retail sales is less severe than that in wholesale, with offline sales showing improvement while online growth is weakening due to high base effects [2] - Overall discount rates in direct retail have deepened year-on-year, but the extent of discounting has narrowed compared to the first half of the fiscal year [2] - Total inventory at the end of the period has decreased year-on-year, maintaining good turnover efficiency, with a slight improvement in inventory age structure [2] - The network of stores is continuously optimized, with a 13.4% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-on-quarter reduction in gross sales area of direct stores, and the pace of store closures has slowed compared to Q2 [2] Group 2: Collaboration with Core Brands - The collaboration with Nike is deepening, with both companies facing similar pressures in the Chinese market regarding foot traffic, sell-through rates, and inventory challenges [3] - Nike plans to enhance support through increased old goods recovery and inventory impairment processing, optimizing channel inventory structure, and adjusting orders for Spring/Summer 2026 to control new product shipments [3] - Both companies are focusing on regulating online market order and promoting unified price management, suggesting Tmall may rebound alongside its core clients [3] Group 3: New Business Development - The company is steadily advancing its new business layout, with successful establishment in specialized segments [4] - The running category has seen the launch of the running brand collective store Ektos, which has strengthened brand recognition and community connection through events like the Shanghai Marathon [4] - In the outdoor category, the exclusive agency of the high-end Norwegian outdoor brand Norr na has achieved breakthroughs, with the first store opened and plans for expansion in more cities [4] Group 4: Financial Guidance - The company has adopted a conservative financial outlook, noting increased volatility in terminal demand since December and significant operational pressure [5] - The previously set target of "year-on-year net profit flat" is expected to deviate within a controllable range [5] - The company maintains a "short-term cautious, long-term optimistic" attitude, with profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 estimated at HKD 1.285 billion, 1.397 billion, and 1.528 billion, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14.52X, 13.36X, and 12.21X respectively [5]