铜价狂飙创纪录！关税与AI需求引爆“完美风暴”，明年短缺还将加剧？

Group 1 - Copper prices are expected to achieve the largest annual increase in over a decade, with prices soaring above $12,000 per ton in December and rising over 30% in 2025, marking the highest annual increase since 2009 [2] - The demand for copper is projected to exceed mineral supply by the 2030s, driven by the transition to renewable energy, electrification of vehicles, and the construction of data centers for artificial intelligence [2] - Aging copper mine productivity is declining, and the high costs and lengthy timelines associated with bringing new mines online are contributing to supply concerns [2] Group 2 - Significant accidents at the world's largest mines since October have raised concerns about shortages, leading to record high copper prices [3] - Major mining companies have lowered production forecasts, and there has been a surge of copper imports into the U.S. as importers rush to acquire metal before potential tariffs [3] - A notable price gap has emerged between London benchmark prices and U.S. Comex copper prices, with traders capitalizing on this difference [3] Group 3 - The current tightness in the copper market is described as regional rather than global, with 85% of LME warehouse copper not qualifying for delivery to U.S. Comex facilities [4] - Despite this, traders are still moving significant amounts of metal to the U.S. due to higher domestic prices, utilizing swaps to manage non-qualifying copper [4] - This situation is expected to persist until 2026, potentially leading to shortages outside the U.S., with copper prices anticipated to remain strong in 2026 [4]