破7入6！人民币强势反攻，美元霸权为何在亚洲难以为继？

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has broken the 7.0 barrier against the USD, marking a significant shift in global financial order and indicating the decline of USD hegemony and the rise of RMB as a major global currency [1][3]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - On December 25, 2025, the RMB returned to the "6 era" with an exchange rate of 6.9973, showcasing the resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy [1]. - This is the first time since October 2024 that the RMB has fallen below the 7.0 mark, reinforcing its potential as a major global currency [1]. - The Federal Reserve's multiple interest rate cuts have led to a decline in the USD index, which has fallen below the critical 100 mark, contrasting with the People's Bank of China's stable policy adjustments [1]. Group 2: Global Currency Trends - The return of the RMB to the "6 era" signifies a deeper trend towards a multipolar currency system, as countries are increasingly reducing their reliance on the USD [3]. - By March 2025, the RMB's usage in cross-border transactions surged to 54.3%, reflecting growing international trust in the currency [3]. - The People's Bank of China has been promoting cross-border RMB facilitation policies, establishing a strong foundation for this trend [3]. Group 3: Trade Relationships and RMB Internationalization - Over the past five years, trade between China and Southeast Asia has increased by over 80%, with trade with Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE doubling, strengthening the basis for RMB internationalization [5]. - Despite the USD's current dominance, its share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to 56.32%, the lowest in 30 years, indicating a shift in global capital flows [5][6]. - Foreign investors' net purchases of US securities have plummeted by 94.4%, reflecting a decline in confidence in the USD due to rising debt and interest pressures in the US [6]. Group 4: RMB's Stability and Attractiveness - The RMB's appreciation is attributed to multiple factors, including the People's Bank of China's precise regulatory measures, which have maintained exchange rate stability [8]. - Recent net inflows of over 50 billion RMB from foreign capital demonstrate global recognition of Chinese assets, with stable exchange rates being a key factor in attracting foreign investment [8]. - Although challenges remain for RMB internationalization, trends in global capital flows and economic restructuring are propelling China towards a more prominent role in the global economy [8].