2026年AI投资究竟有没有泡沫？

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market's technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks, has shown significant growth since 2025, raising concerns about potential investment bubbles in AI [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Wind Computing Theme Index closed at 7108 points on December 25, 2025, reflecting an 80% increase since the beginning of the year, indicating strong growth in the computing sector [2]. - A total of 22 stocks in the A-share computing sector have doubled in value since the start of the year, highlighting the rapid price increases in AI-related stocks [2]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - According to Zhao Yaoting, a strategist at Invesco, AI-related stocks do not exhibit significant bubbles based on their fundamentals and performance [3]. - The current AI investment landscape is viewed as rational by both foreign and domestic analysts, with no clear signs of bubble formation [4]. Group 3: Industry Development Stages - The AI industry is still in the early stages of productivity enhancement, with significant improvements in total factor productivity expected to take several more years [3]. - The current market phase is characterized by rising capital expenditures and valuation increases, which is considered a normal phenomenon in investment cycles [4]. Group 4: Profitability and Valuation - Global tech giants maintain healthy cash flow, with some upstream sectors already realizing profits, such as Nvidia in the US and certain companies in the A-share market [4]. - As of December 28, the NASDAQ index's price-to-earnings ratio was approximately 41.9, significantly lower than the over 100 times seen during the 2000 internet bubble [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The AI sector is expected to transition from a "valuation-driven" phase to an "earnings-driven" phase, with companies demonstrating real profitability likely to see continued stock price increases [4][5]. - The macroeconomic environment in 2026 may support the AI sector, with expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and a more accommodative global liquidity environment [4].