美国最大电网“容量拍卖”内幕：若无价格管制，AI热潮本将令电价再涨60%

Core Insights - The latest capacity auction results from PJM Interconnection reveal that the surge in demand from artificial intelligence and data centers is pushing the U.S. power system to its limits [1][2] - The auction for the 2027/2028 base residual capacity saw prices soar to $333.40 per MW-day, breaking previous records and hitting the price cap approved by FERC [1] - If the price cap were removed, the simulated market clearing price could reach $529.80 per MW-day, indicating a potential 60% increase in electricity costs due to data center demand [1][4] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for electricity from U.S. data centers has significantly increased, with a monthly addition of 1.6 GW in November, a 4% month-over-month growth, bringing total capacity to 44.6 GW [3] - PJM market, covering key areas including Virginia's "Data Center Alley," saw the largest capacity addition of 0.45 GW, with Virginia contributing 0.27 GW [3] - Despite high demand, supply response has been slow, with only about 350.7 MW of new generation and 423.6 MW of upgraded capacity procured in the auction [3] Hidden Costs and Reliability Concerns - The auction results highlight the risk of "shadow prices," with potential costs rising by 40% year-over-year if unregulated [4] - The reserve margin dropped from 18.9% to 14.8%, indicating a tightening supply situation and falling below the target of 20% [5] - The effective load-carrying capability (ELCC) increased from 69% to 92%, but this did not alleviate the supply shortage [6] Future Outlook - The next auction scheduled for June 2026 faces significant uncertainty, as no price caps have been set, potentially leading to prices reaching $600 per MW-day [6] - Without structural changes before the next auction, the U.S. may face a dilemma between AI development and air conditioning electricity needs in 2026 [6]