【行业研究】融资租赁行业信用风险展望

Core Viewpoint - The credit risk outlook for the financing leasing industry is expected to remain stable over the next year, despite challenges such as high debt levels and pressure on profitability [1][70]. Industry Policy and Regulatory Environment - Regulatory bodies are refining business conduct norms and encouraging financing leasing companies to serve the real economy [10]. - In January 2025, the National Financial Supervision Administration released a regulatory rating method for financial leasing companies, evaluating them on five dimensions, with a new focus on information technology management [11]. - Various provinces have issued detailed regulations to strengthen supervision and relax concentration limits in specific areas [12]. Industry Competition Status - Since 2022, the leasing industry has been contracting, with a gradual stabilization of contract balances expected in the future [15]. - The number of financing leasing companies has been decreasing, with a total of 7,020 companies as of June 2025, primarily consisting of foreign-funded leasing companies [16]. - The contract balance for financing leasing has been declining, with a decrease of 3.59% in 2023 and 3.19% in 2024, but the rate of decline is narrowing [16]. Industry Operating and Financial Conditions Operating Performance - From 2022 to 2024, the average operating income of sample financing leasing companies continued to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 2.69% in 2024 and 4.10% in the first three quarters of 2025 [21][29]. - The average total assets of sample companies grew by 8.07% in 2023 and 3.14% in 2024 [21]. Asset Quality - The asset quality of sample financing leasing companies has been improving, with the average non-performing asset scale decreasing by 6.80% in 2023 and 2.81% in 2024 [31]. Profitability - Average profit margins have been under pressure, with a decline in average net interest margins and fluctuations in profit totals [34]. - In 2025, the average profit total saw a slight increase of 0.46% in the first three quarters, despite ongoing challenges [34]. Short-term and Long-term Solvency - The average leverage ratio of sample financing leasing companies has been decreasing, reaching 4.83 times by September 2025, indicating effective control over leverage levels [40][45]. - The average liquidity ratio remained above 85%, indicating good liquidity management [40]. Industry Bond Market Performance Overview of Bond Issuing Companies - The number of companies issuing securities has remained stable, with 185 companies issuing bonds in 2024, and 180 in the first ten months of 2025 [50]. - There has been an upward adjustment in ratings for some companies, indicating improved financial health [52]. Bond Market Conditions - The financing costs for the leasing industry have significantly decreased, particularly for lower-rated companies [53][64]. - The concentration of bond maturities is notable, with a significant portion maturing in 2026, necessitating attention to repayment capabilities [53]. Outlook - The financing leasing industry is expected to face challenges related to high debt levels and profitability pressures, but factors such as business growth, increased capital strength, and improved asset quality suggest a stable credit risk outlook [70]. - Long-term growth is anticipated due to internal growth, shareholder support, and a declining non-performing rate, alongside a favorable regulatory environment [71].