野村：AI需求意外强劲，内存超级周期预计将至少持续到2027年

Core Viewpoint - The global memory industry is expected to experience a "super cycle" lasting until at least 2027, driven by unexpectedly strong demand for AI servers and a surge in enterprise solid-state drive (eSSD) demand [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - AI technology is reshaping the memory market more than anticipated, with data center expansion plans from global AI companies continuing to exceed expectations [3]. - Demand for general DRAM is projected to see explosive growth in 2026, driven by both AI and non-AI servers [3]. - Customers are beginning to adopt strategic inventory stocking due to the surge in demand, granting suppliers greater pricing power [3]. Group 2: Pricing Trends - DRAM prices for consumer products (PC and mobile) have increased by 30-40% quarter-on-quarter, while server DRAM prices have risen by 40-60% [4]. - The average price of enterprise SSDs is expected to rise by 30-40% in Q4 2025, indicating that previous forecasts for general DRAM price growth were overly conservative [4]. Group 3: Supply and Production Strategies - Supply shortages are expected to persist until 2027, with significant supply increases not anticipated until 2028 [5]. - Memory companies are expected to adopt more flexible production strategies, focusing on general storage chips due to their rapidly improving profit margins [6]. Group 4: Financial Forecasts for Key Players - Nomura has significantly raised financial forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, with Samsung's Q4 2025 operating profit estimate increased by 22% to 21.5 trillion KRW [10]. - SK Hynix's Q4 2025 operating profit forecast has been raised by 8.2% to 17.5 trillion KRW, with expectations that its general DRAM operating profit margin will exceed that of HBM starting in Q4 2025 [10]. Group 5: Valuation Insights - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are viewed as undervalued compared to their memory peers, with potential for valuation re-rating as companies adopt proactive shareholder return policies and disciplined capital expenditures [8].