Cinda Securities(SH:601059) 智通财经网·2025-12-29 10:34Core Viewpoint - The demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is rapidly increasing due to the decarbonization efforts in the aviation industry, leading to a significant rise in SAF prices, with European SAF prices reaching $2300-2320 per ton and domestic prices at $2100-2300 per ton as of December 16, 2025, marking increases of approximately 25% and 24% respectively since the beginning of the year [1][3]. Group 1: SAF Price Trends and Demand Drivers - The SAF price has experienced fluctuations since 2025, initially declining due to delayed demand and capacity release, but rebounding strongly due to geopolitical conflicts affecting raw material prices and the implementation of regulatory policies in the EU and UK [1][3]. - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that with appropriate government support, SAF production will reach 0.06 million tons (79 million liters) by 2025, accounting for 2% of total fuel demand, with expectations of demand reaching 0.18 million tons (230 million liters) by 2030 and 3.5 million tons by 2050 [3][4]. Group 2: SAF Production Technologies - Currently, the dominant SAF production method is HEFA, with 11 approved production processes as of January 2025, but other technologies are gradually moving towards commercial application [2]. - The cost of SAF production methods is expected to decline significantly by 2050, with projections indicating a 67% reduction for Power-to-Liquid (PtL) technology, which may become a major long-term solution due to its superior emission reduction capabilities [2]. Group 3: China's SAF Industry Expansion - China's SAF industry is in a rapid expansion phase, with current production capacity at approximately 1.7 million tons per year, primarily using HEFA technology and waste cooking oil as feedstock [4]. - By 2027, an additional 5.5 million tons per year of capacity is expected to come online, potentially positioning China as a major global exporter of SAF, thereby supporting the international development of green energy [4]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Companies with mature HEFA technology and early capacity release are likely to benefit from rising demand and prices, with specific companies such as Haineng Energy, Pengyao Environmental Protection, Shangaohuan Energy, and Langkun Technology identified as potential investment opportunities [5][6].