沪指九连阳！但一个危险信号已悄然出现

Market Overview - The market is characterized by a "dual climate," with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.04% to close at 3965.28 points, marking a "nine consecutive days" increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.49% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.66%, indicating a strong performance in Shanghai compared to Shenzhen [1] - The total trading volume across both markets was approximately 2.16 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day but still above the 2 trillion yuan mark, suggesting active trading with a notable shift in fund allocation [1] Sector Performance - Leading sectors included banking (+1.03%), oil and petrochemicals (+1.48%), and national defense and military industry (+1.43%), reflecting a preference for low-valuation, high-dividend defensive sectors and policy-driven sectors [2] - Conversely, previously popular sectors such as non-ferrous metals saw an overall decline of 1.95%, with poor performance in electric power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage sectors, indicating a shift of funds from high-valuation sectors to those with safety margins [2] Commodity Market Dynamics - The recent bull market in commodities is driven by four core factors: expectations of global liquidity easing (with imminent Fed rate cuts), demand recovery from economic recovery, geopolitical risks increasing safe-haven sentiment, and long-term demand support from the new energy and AI industries for metals like copper and silver [3] - Copper and silver are highlighted as key metals, with copper being essential for AI development and global energy transition, while silver is projected to face a supply shortage exceeding 100 million ounces by 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply deficit [3] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a pattern of "index fluctuations and structural differentiation," with the resilience of the Shanghai Composite Index indicating a warm market sentiment, while adjustments in the Shenzhen market suggest that a broad-based rally is unlikely [4] - Suggested investment strategies include focusing on the revaluation trend of resource commodities like copper, aluminum, and silver; investing in sectors with ongoing policy support such as national defense and aerospace; exploring recovery opportunities in financial and real estate sectors with historically low valuations; and holding strong-performing consumer leaders for the long term [4]