迟福林支招大湾区：“十五五”推进粤港澳服务贸易一体化

Core Insights - The core argument presented is that if China's consumption share in the global market approaches that of its manufacturing sector, it could create an additional consumption market of no less than $10 trillion [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Development Strategy - The focus on "domestic demand-led growth and consumption-driven development" is deemed crucial for enhancing economic resilience amid rising global uncertainties and adjustments in international trade [3][4]. - The current structural issue in China's economy is characterized by insufficient domestic demand, particularly weak consumption, leading to an imbalance of "strong supply and weak demand" [3][4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is identified as a critical time to stimulate consumption and unlock the potential of China's vast market [3][4]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - In 2023, China's manufacturing value added accounted for 28% of the global total, while final consumption expenditure represented only 13.2% of global consumption [3][4]. - There is a significant gap in the consumption rate between China and developed economies, with China's consumption rate projected at 39.9% in 2024, compared to around 54% in major developed economies, indicating a potential increase of at least 14 percentage points [4][5]. - A 1 percentage point increase in the consumption rate could release approximately 800 billion yuan in consumption growth, suggesting that a 14 percentage point increase by 2035 could generate over 11 trillion yuan in new consumption [5]. Group 3: Service Consumption - The shift from material consumption to service-oriented consumption is highlighted as a key trend, with sectors such as education, healthcare, culture, and tourism showing the fastest growth [6][7]. - From 2013 to 2024, the annual growth rate of service consumption in China is projected at 7.2%, with its share of total consumption rising from 39.7% to 46.1%, and further to 46.8% in the first three quarters of 2025 [6][7]. Group 4: Regional Development and Trade Integration - The integration of service trade in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area is emphasized as a strategic move to enhance service-oriented consumption and high-level openness [9][10]. - The service trade's share in Guangdong's foreign trade is only 12.5% in 2024, which is significantly lower than the global average, indicating room for improvement [9][10]. Group 5: Investment in Human Capital - The strategy of "investing in people" is proposed as essential for driving domestic demand and consumption, with an estimated investment requirement of 80 trillion to 100 trillion yuan to improve public services and enhance consumer expectations [12][13]. - The suggestion includes reallocating 10% to 15% of state-owned assets for "investing in people," which could amount to 30 trillion to 50 trillion yuan based on the total assets of state-owned enterprises [13].