白银“蹦极” 盘中振幅超过12%

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices experienced significant volatility, with a peak increase of 5.3% to $83.971 per ounce before dropping sharply to a low of $74.215, resulting in a daily fluctuation of nearly $10 per ounce and a total intraday volatility of 12.3% [1][3] Group 1: Price Movements and Trends - In the last two trading days, silver prices have shown increased volatility, with a notable single-day increase of approximately 10% on December 26, marking the largest single-day gain since 2008 [3] - Year-to-date, silver prices have risen over 185%, maintaining a growth rate of around 160% even after the recent pullback, positioning it for the best annual performance since 1979 [3] - The silver-gold ratio has significantly decreased from around 104 in April to below 60, with a peak of approximately 55 on December 29 [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Despite a generally optimistic outlook for precious metals, there are concerns about short-term overheating risks in the silver market, with some investors suggesting that the current market dynamics are driven more by speculation than fundamentals [3] - Analysts from Heraeus and TD Securities have warned of potential price declines for silver and other precious metals in the first half of 2026, with predictions of silver prices stabilizing around $40 [4] - The Silver Institute forecasts a structural supply deficit of approximately 95 million ounces in the global silver market for 2025, indicating a continued supply-demand imbalance for the fifth consecutive year [5][6] Group 3: Regulatory Actions and Market Reactions - In response to heightened trading activity, the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to margin requirements and price limits for gold and silver futures contracts, effective December 30 [4] - The CME Group also raised margin requirements for various metal futures, which is expected to increase trading costs and lead to profit-taking among investors, contributing to price declines on December 29 [5] Group 4: Retail Investor Behavior - Retail investor sentiment remains bullish, with 57% of retail traders expecting silver prices to exceed $100 per ounce in 2026, contrasting with only 27% of institutional analysts predicting prices between $80 and $100 [8] - The National Investment Silver LOF has experienced extreme price movements, including consecutive trading halts, with a significant price fluctuation of 19.61% on December 29 [8][9] - High premium rates for the National Investment Silver LOF have attracted many investors, leading to a chain reaction of arbitrage activities that have resulted in price disconnections from net asset values [9]