财经观察｜涨得吓人！贵金属2025年“狂飙”，年末最后一周谨防回调风险

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market is experiencing an unprecedented bull market in 2025, with silver and platinum prices rising over 170% within the year, while gold has surpassed $4500 per ounce. However, recent market volatility has raised concerns about potential corrections [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals have shown record annual gains, with COMEX silver futures reaching $79.675 per ounce, up approximately 170% from $29.3 at the beginning of the year. NYMEX platinum futures have increased over 178%, while London gold prices have risen more than 70% [2][3]. - Silver prices surged dramatically, first exceeding $50 per ounce on October 9, then breaking the $60 mark on December 9, and peaking at $79.405 per ounce on December 26, before settling at $77.2 on December 29 [3][5]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The price surge in precious metals is attributed to a combination of factors, including supportive policies, strong supply-demand dynamics, and speculative inflows. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have weakened the dollar, while global central banks continue to accumulate precious metals [3][5]. - Industrial demand for silver remains robust, particularly in electronics and photovoltaics, while supply constraints persist due to reduced production in major countries like Mexico and Peru, leading to a structural deficit in the market [3][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent volatility in the silver market has prompted traders to shift focus towards silver, impacting traditional gold investments. Retail demand for silver has surged, with reports of shortages and increased pre-orders due to high prices [5][7]. - On December 29, silver prices dropped nearly 5%, and gold fell below the critical $4500 mark, indicating a potential profit-taking trend among speculative investors [5][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the precious metals market in 2026, citing continued support from Federal Reserve policy shifts, central bank purchases, and ETF inflows. However, caution is advised regarding potential price corrections as current valuations may not be sustainable [8][9]. - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices may range between $4385 and $5415, with key resistance at $4575-$4670 and support at $4250. Silver is expected to challenge the $80-$100 resistance zone, with critical support at $56-$52 [8].