芯原股份(688521):四季度新签订单高速增长 长期买入机会

Core Insights - The company announced new orders of 2.5 billion yuan for Q4 2025, representing a 130% year-over-year increase and a 56% quarter-over-quarter increase, confirming the high growth trend in the company and industry [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing transformation in the industry as internet companies increase their investment in AI computing power and develop stronger computing systems [1] - The stock price currently corresponds to an 8x price-to-sales ratio for 2027, and recent adjustments due to shareholder reductions and unlocked shares present a long-term buying opportunity, maintaining a buy recommendation [1] New Orders Growth - In Q4 2025, the company secured new orders of 2.5 billion yuan, with over 84% related to AI computing orders and nearly 76% in the data processing sector [1] - The total new orders for 2025 are expected to reach 5.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 150% year-over-year growth, further validating the high growth trend in the company and industry [1] - The company’s performance is expected to see significant growth over the next two years [1] Shareholder Reduction Impact - The major shareholder, the Big Fund, plans to reduce its stake by 1.7% through centralized bidding and block trading, with a reduction period from January 21, 2026, to April 20, 2026 [2] - Although the reduction may create short-term pressure, the long-term impact on the company is expected to be limited [2] Profit Forecast - The company has been focusing on Chiplet technology and its applications in generative AI and smart driving for the past five years, aiming to expand into emerging markets and attract leading industry clients [2] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.06 billion yuan, 5.41 billion yuan, and 8.47 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth rates of 32%, 77%, and 57% respectively [2] - Net profits are forecasted to be 26 million yuan, 270 million yuan, and 640 million yuan for the same years, with corresponding EPS of 0.05 yuan, 0.51 yuan, and 1.21 yuan [2]