Netflix Is Out of Favor—and That’s Why It’s Getting Interesting

Core Viewpoint - Netflix is experiencing a significant decline in share price, down approximately 20% in Q4, underperforming the S&P 500, which gained over 3% [1][2]. Financial Performance - Despite an EPS miss in October's earnings report, Netflix achieved its highest revenue ever, indicating that demand remains strong [3]. - The stock has lost more than 30% since its all-time high in July, returning to levels seen a year ago [1]. Market Sentiment - The sell-off reflects a loss of confidence among investors regarding Netflix's ability to sustain growth rates and concerns over its acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery [2][6]. - The market tends to react negatively to uncertainty, which has compounded Netflix's challenges following the disappointing earnings report [4][5]. Acquisition Concerns - Netflix's bid for Warner Bros Discovery has introduced additional uncertainty, especially with a competing offer from Paramount Skydance [6][7]. - Investors are wary of potential leverage and increased debt that could arise from a bidding war, which may affect Netflix's balance sheet [7]. Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a potential turnaround, with Netflix's RSI nearing oversold territory and a bullish MACD crossover forming [8]. - The stock is stabilizing above the $90 level, which could indicate a recovery rally if maintained [9]. Analyst Outlook - Recent analyst ratings from firms like Morgan Stanley and Jefferies have reiterated Buy ratings, with price targets reaching as high as $152, suggesting a potential upside of around 60% [10][11]. Conditions for Recovery - For a Q1 comeback, Netflix needs to maintain its stock price above $90, gain clarity on the Warner Bros acquisition, and deliver an earnings report that exceeds expectations [12]. - Meeting these conditions could position Netflix favorably in a market dominated by high-performing tech stocks [13].