泸州老窖：战略定力，看好改善弹性，预测Q4一致预期营收265.19~298.70亿元

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao is expected to experience a decline in both revenue and net profit for Q4 2025, with projected revenue ranging from 26.519 to 29.870 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -15.0% to -4.3%, and net profit expected to be between 11.143 to 13.039 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -17.3% to -3.2% [1][7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The consensus forecast for Q4 2025 indicates an average revenue of 28.144 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 9.8%, and an average net profit of 11.886 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.8% [3][8] - Various securities firms have provided differing forecasts, with estimates for revenue ranging from 26.519 billion yuan to 29.870 billion yuan and net profit estimates between 11.143 billion yuan and 13.039 billion yuan [4][9] Market and Strategic Insights - According to Kaiyuan Securities, Luzhou Laojiao maintains stable pricing for its core product, Guojiao, and has managed to keep market order intact despite weak consumer demand. The company has adjusted its strategies to release pressure in an orderly manner, maintaining channel confidence [5][10] - Northeast Securities notes that while revenue and net profit have declined in the first half of 2025, sales of mid-to-high-end liquor have shown steady growth. The company is focusing on digital marketing to enhance efficiency and is innovating products to expand consumer demand [6][10]