Core Viewpoint - HSBC forecasts global economic growth to be 2.8% in 2025 and slightly slow to 2.7% in 2026, influenced by geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation, but supported by AI investments and fiscal expansions from major economies [1] Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - HSBC predicts global economic growth rates of 2.8% for 2025 and 2.7% for 2026, indicating a slight slowdown [1] - Factors such as geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and slowing labor growth are expected to pressure growth potential [1] - Structural deployment in AI infrastructure and fiscal expansions from major countries may offset some negative factors [1] Group 2: Trade Projections - Global goods and services trade export growth is expected to accelerate to 3.8% in 2025 from 3.0% in 2024, but will slow to 2.0% in 2026 due to various factors including the effects of previous "export rush" [2] - Despite reduced tariff uncertainties, U.S. personal consumption expenditure growth is expected to moderate, impacting trade growth [2] Group 3: U.S. Economic Conditions - HSBC anticipates that U.S. core inflation will remain sticky in 2026 due to supply-side shocks from tariffs and resilient service demand driven by high-income consumers [2] - The U.S. economy is expected to maintain some resilience in the first half of 2026 due to strong AI-related capital expenditures and the end of government shutdowns [2] - HSBC believes the Federal Reserve will likely maintain the current federal funds rate target range in 2026 without further rate cuts [2] Group 4: Asian Economic Outlook - After strong growth in 2025, Asian export growth is expected to slow in 2026 but will still outperform the global average [3] - Lower inflation in some emerging economies in Asia may allow for continued implementation of accommodative monetary policies [3] - Countries like China are expected to adopt more proactive fiscal policies to boost domestic demand [3]
汇丰:美联储在2026年或不会考虑进一步降息