日本央行加息未完待续

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has raised its benchmark interest rate to a 30-year high, with some members of the monetary policy committee advocating for further rate hikes in the coming year, while also emphasizing the need to monitor economic conditions and government fiscal policies [1][3][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - On December 19, the BOJ decided to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points from 0.5% to 0.75%, marking the highest interest rate level in 30 years [3]. - The BOJ's policy statement indicated that as long as the economic growth outlook remains stable, there is room for further rate increases [3]. - A committee member expressed that Japan's actual policy rate is currently at the lowest level globally and suggested that the BOJ should continue to raise rates periodically to prevent rapid tightening in the future [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - The BOJ is facing pressure to consider Japan's economic situation and the fiscal policies of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's government alongside inflation [5]. - Japan's real GDP contracted by 2.3% year-on-year in the third quarter, exceeding the predicted decline of 2%, primarily due to decreased corporate investment amid uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies [5]. - Analysts noted that simple monetary tightening may not be sufficient to strengthen the yen, as Japan's economy faces significant structural challenges [7][9]. Group 3: Inflation and Wage Growth - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that Japan is steadily approaching the 2% price stability target, with a positive cycle of wage growth forming [4]. - Ueda emphasized that if future economic and price trends align with the BOJ's expectations, monetary policy will continue to adjust accordingly [4]. - The BOJ's cautious approach to rate hikes reflects a balance between addressing inflation and supporting economic growth [5][8]. Group 4: Currency and Trade Balance - Concerns about the depreciation of the yen were raised, with the currency nearing the 160 mark against the dollar, which previously triggered intervention by Japanese authorities [6]. - Japan has experienced trade deficits for four consecutive years, with a projected deficit of 5.2 trillion yen for the fiscal year 2024 [8]. - The service balance is also under pressure, with a significant digital trade deficit, indicating ongoing challenges for the yen's value [7][9].