Natural Gas Outlook: Can Cold Weather Lift Prices in January 2026?

Industry Overview - Natural gas prices have risen over 20% in 2025, driven by tighter balances and increasing demand [1] - The market is currently sensitive to weather forecasts, with small changes causing significant price movements [4][5] Price Movements - Natural gas prices rebounded approximately 10% during the Christmas holiday week, closing just under mid-$4.30 per million British thermal units [2][8] - Prices stabilized after a two-week decline, indicating a pause in the previous downtrend, primarily due to traders closing short positions [3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Heating demand is expected to rise due to colder weather, while LNG exports are maintaining steady support [5][6] - U.S. natural gas production remains near record highs, which helps to keep supply balanced and limits significant price fluctuations [5] Company Highlights - The Williams Companies: Positioned to benefit from long-term natural gas demand growth, with a strong portfolio of large-scale projects and handling a third of U.S. natural gas [9][10] - Cheniere Energy: Holds a competitive edge with regulatory approval for LNG exports, backed by strong operations and long-term contracts, with a 26.4% increase in earnings estimates over the past 60 days [11][12] - Excelerate Energy: Focuses on LNG infrastructure and services, accounting for about 20% of the global Floating Storage Regasification Units fleet, with expansion into LNG-to-power and gas distribution [13][14] Investment Outlook - The current setup for natural gas is cautiously positive, with supportive factors limiting downside risk while allowing for potential gains if colder weather trends continue [6][7]