2026年全球黄金市场展望——百尺竿头，能否更进一步-世界黄金协会

Core Insights - The global gold market performed exceptionally in 2025, achieving over 50 historical highs and a cumulative increase of over 60%, making it one of the best-performing asset classes [1][11][15] - The price surge was driven by four main factors: geopolitical and economic uncertainty contributed 8 percentage points, a weaker dollar contributed 10 percentage points, trend momentum contributed 9 percentage points, and economic expansion contributed 10 percentage points [1][15][23] - Central banks continued to increase their gold holdings, although not at the peak levels of the past three years, but still significantly above historical averages, providing crucial market support [1][11][15] 2026 Market Outlook - The gold market's trajectory in 2026 will heavily depend on macroeconomic developments, with current gold prices reflecting market consensus on economic growth, inflation, and monetary policy [1][24][26] - Three core scenarios for 2026 are outlined: - Mild Recession Scenario: If U.S. economic growth slows and the Federal Reserve implements unexpected rate cuts, gold prices may rise by 5% to 15% [6][30] - Vicious Cycle Scenario: If geopolitical tensions escalate, leading to a synchronized global economic slowdown, gold could see a strong increase of 15% to 30% [6][33] - Reinflation Return Scenario: If economic policies lead to stronger-than-expected growth and inflation pressures, gold prices may face a decline of 5% to 20% due to increased opportunity costs [6][35] Key Uncertainties - Central bank gold purchases and recycled gold supply are significant variables affecting the gold market in 2026 [1][36] - Emerging market central banks still hold a lower proportion of gold reserves compared to developed economies, and geopolitical tensions may accelerate their gold purchasing [1][36] - A potential decline in gold purchases back to pre-pandemic levels could pose challenges for the market [1][36]