白银价格上演“过山车”：创80美元历史新高后高位跳水，交易所调控引市场降温

Core Viewpoint - The silver market experienced a historic moment on December 29, with both spot silver and COMEX silver futures breaking the $80 per ounce mark for the first time, reaching new all-time highs before undergoing significant volatility [1]. Price Movements - Spot silver saw an intraday increase of nearly 6%, peaking at approximately $84 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures reached a high of $82.67 per ounce before a sharp pullback, with a low of $73.71 per ounce during the day [1]. - In the domestic market, the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged by 10% before quickly retreating, closing with a slight gain of 0.51% [2]. Market Dynamics - The price fluctuations are closely linked to adjustments in risk control measures by exchanges. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised silver futures margin requirements by approximately 13.6% on December 29, following a previous increase of 10% on December 12 [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange also announced margin adjustments and increased price limits, indicating a proactive approach to managing market risks [3]. Supply and Demand Factors - Silver has significantly outperformed gold this year, with year-to-date increases exceeding 155% for both spot silver and COMEX silver futures, compared to around 70% for gold [4]. - The surge in silver prices is driven by a severe supply-demand imbalance, with a notable increase in physical silver purchases, where buyers are willing to pay a 7% premium for immediate delivery [4]. - The global silver market is facing a structural supply deficit, projected to reach approximately 9.5 million ounces by 2025, exacerbated by concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on silver [6]. Investment Trends - The silver market, being one-tenth the size of the gold market, is more volatile, and its dual role as a financial hedge and industrial metal is driving demand, particularly in sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles [5]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that new solar installations will increase silver demand by nearly 150 million ounces annually from 2024 to 2030 [5]. Market Sentiment - The recent rapid price increases have raised concerns about potential over-speculation, with historical precedents indicating that margin hikes can lead to significant price corrections [7]. - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics, including the recent margin adjustments by exchanges, could serve as a turning point for silver prices, warranting close monitoring [7].