Tesla(US:TSLA) Benzinga·2025-12-29 20:23Core Viewpoint - Tesla Inc. may face challenges in maintaining momentum after a record third quarter, with predictions of weaker fourth-quarter deliveries than expected [1][3]. Group 1: Fourth Quarter Deliveries - Tesla is anticipated to report fourth-quarter deliveries soon, with analysts suggesting that these figures may hold less significance moving forward [2]. - Gene Munster estimates fourth-quarter deliveries to be around 415,000, representing a 16% year-over-year decline and falling short of the consensus estimate of approximately 449,000 [3]. - The third quarter saw record deliveries of 497,099, influenced by the expiration of the U.S. federal tax credit on September 30 [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Munster's estimate considers the impact of the tax credit expiration, which is expected to lead to a more significant drop in deliveries than previously anticipated [4]. - Despite the expected decline, Tesla could gain market share, as U.S. electric vehicle sales are projected to decrease by 30% year-over-year for the quarter [5]. - If Tesla's delivery figures are lower than expected, it may not significantly impact share prices, as analysts are increasingly focusing on Tesla's AI and robotaxi segments rather than just vehicle deliveries [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Investor expectations for Tesla's deliveries in the December quarter and for the full year 2026 have diminished, with a growing belief that Tesla is a leading investment in physical AI [7]. - Tesla's shares have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past six months, with a current market capitalization of $1.6 trillion, which may reflect a premium valuation beyond its automotive business [8]. - Munster predicts that deliveries will stabilize, with growth of 15% or more annually possible, especially as competitors reduce their exposure to the electric vehicle market [10].