峰瑞资本李丰：为何这轮全球AI浪潮热度如此空前？

Core Insights - The AI industry is still in its early stages, despite being considered a productivity revolution, and it may take longer than expected to fully realize its potential [4][7][8] - The surge in asset prices in global capital markets has been driven by unprecedented liquidity, necessitating a grand narrative like AI to justify high valuations [4][10][11] - Investment strategies in technology typically progress through three stages: investing in the technology itself, investing in imaginative applications, and finally investing in practical applications [15][18] Investment Landscape - The primary focus of investments from 2022 to 2024 has been on AI infrastructure, embodied intelligence, AI applications, AI in drug development, and future technologies, covering over 80% of recent investments [6] - The primary investment themes have included AI hardware and robotics, with a notable increase in activity starting from the Chinese New Year of 2023 [5][6] - The current investment climate is characterized by a concentration on large models and robotics, with expectations for improvement in the primary market over the next six months [5][6] Market Dynamics - The global capital market's total value has surpassed GDP, reaching approximately $130 trillion, which is over 1.1 times the global nominal GDP of $114 trillion [10][11] - The emergence of ChatGPT in November 2022 provided a rationale for the surge in asset prices, as capital sought a narrative to support the inflated valuations [10][11] - The U.S. financial and tech sectors have shown resilience, with significant contributions from the AI narrative, leading to a situation where major tech companies have market values exceeding the GDP of most countries [11][12] Future Outlook - The AI wave is expected to evolve, with a shift towards practical applications and vertical AI agents, particularly in industries with established digitalization [26][28] - The development of AI hardware is crucial, as new consumer devices will create demand for innovative chips tailored for AI applications [26][28] - The potential for China to surpass the U.S. in AI applications exists, as historical precedents show that extensive application of technology can lead to significant advancements [31]