Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-12-29 08:59Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry, known for predicting the subprime mortgage crisis, believes that the AI sector, particularly companies like Nvidia and Palantir, is forming a bubble similar to the internet bubble, and he has taken short positions in these stocks through options trading [1]. Group 1: Market Position and Strategy - Burry has invested approximately $10 million in put options against Nvidia and Palantir, with potential returns exceeding $1 billion if a market crash occurs as he anticipates [1]. - He has publicly criticized Nvidia's internal memo, claiming it is filled with "straw man arguments" and suggests that the real risks are being obscured [1][5]. Group 2: Concerns about Nvidia - Burry's main concerns regarding Nvidia focus on the capital expenditures of its clients, which he believes are at risk of significant asset write-downs due to rapid technological advancements [1][5]. - He argues that Nvidia's clients, such as Microsoft and Meta, may extend the depreciation period of their GPUs to enhance short-term profits, which could lead to future financial issues as new technology renders existing hardware obsolete [5]. Group 3: Concerns about Palantir - Burry criticizes Palantir for its heavy reliance on government contracts and excessive executive compensation, as well as facing intense competition from companies like IBM [6]. Group 4: Historical Context and Market Reactions - Despite Burry's past successes, he has faced skepticism due to several failed predictions over the last 15 years, leading to a perception that he often enters positions too early [8]. - Burry's previous call to "sell" in early 2023 was followed by a significant market rally, which he later acknowledged as a mistake, but he defended his overall investment strategy [8].