2026年铜价预测84000～110000元之间。

Group 1 - Supply remains tight due to rigid constraints at the mining level, with frequent production disruptions at major mines like Indonesia's Grasberg and Chile's El Teniente, leading to insufficient new capacity and tight copper concentrate supply [2] - The smelting sector is under pressure as copper concentrate processing fees (TC/RC) have dropped to negative values, causing Chinese smelting companies to face production cuts due to raw material shortages and losses, which may further impact refined copper supply [2] - There is a structural demand highlight despite weak demand in traditional real estate, with strong growth points emerging from investments in power grids, electric vehicles, AI data centers, and supporting power facilities, providing resilient support for copper demand [2] Group 2 - A unique "regional inventory imbalance" has emerged due to U.S. tariff policies, resulting in a significant flow of global copper inventory to U.S. warehouses, causing tight spot supply in Asia (including China) and Europe, which has driven up spot premiums and prices in these regions [2] - The macroeconomic and financial environment is supportive, with expectations of global liquidity easing during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and a weaker dollar enhancing the financial attributes and allocation value of commodities like copper [2] Group 3 - The overall outlook for copper prices in China for 2026 suggests that under supply constraints, emerging demand, and financial support, prices are likely to rise and remain high, making significant declines less probable [2]