经济运行显韧性 人民币温和回升有支撑

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is primarily driven by short-term factors rather than indicating the start of a new appreciation cycle. The RMB is currently within a reasonable equilibrium range, supported by a trade surplus and stable economic fundamentals [1][3]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The offshore RMB against the US dollar broke the 7.0 mark on December 25, reaching a high of 6.9985, the highest in 15 months, while the onshore RMB also strengthened to 7.0066, marking a new high since September 2024 [1]. - The RMB's recent strength is attributed to a weakening US dollar, which has declined nearly 10% this year due to various factors including trade tensions and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve interest rate policies [3]. - Analysts expect the RMB to continue a pattern of "two-way fluctuations and moderate recovery" in the coming year, influenced by the Fed's interest rate cuts and a potential narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the US [2]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals and Policy Support - China's trade surplus reached approximately $1.0758 trillion in the first eleven months of 2025, providing a solid foundation for the RMB's exchange rate stability [1]. - Policies aimed at stimulating consumption and expanding domestic demand are expected to support the RMB, with a focus on proactive fiscal and moderately accommodative monetary policies [4][5]. - The RMB is projected to fluctuate within the range of 6.8 to 7.2 against the US dollar in 2026, contingent on the performance of the US economy and inflation levels [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Corporate Strategies - A stable or appreciating RMB can enhance international capital confidence in Chinese assets, positively impacting financial market sentiment [6]. - However, the appreciation may increase operational pressures on export-oriented companies by reducing their price competitiveness, prompting a need for innovation and efficiency improvements [6]. - Companies are advised to adopt risk management strategies to hedge against exchange rate fluctuations, focusing on core business operations and securing trade profits [6].