36氪研究院 | “十五五”时期重点产业前瞻与发展路径研究

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system as a primary strategic task, marking a shift from isolated technological breakthroughs to systematic industrial upgrades [4][10] - The new energy industry is transitioning from focusing on installed capacity to establishing a "source-network-load-storage" collaborative system, emphasizing dynamic balance between production and consumption [4][18] - The aerospace sector is developing a dual-driven model of national engineering and commercial spaceflight, with large aircraft industrialization and commercial spaceflight jointly promoting the scale and capability of the industrial chain [4][35] - Future industries such as 6G and quantum technology place China in the global leading tier of R&D, aiming to seize the high ground in technology standards and industrial ecosystems through forward-looking layouts [4][61] - The transformation of traditional industries emphasizes not only greening and intelligentization but also explicitly promotes "service-oriented manufacturing," guiding the manufacturing sector to extend services throughout the product lifecycle [4][93] Emerging Pillar Industries - The cultivation of emerging pillar industries is positioned as a core strategy for high-quality development, with a focus on sectors like aerospace and low-altitude economy that have industrialization foundations [14][35] - The new energy sector is expected to maintain a leading global position, with installed capacity projected to reach 1.41 billion kilowatts by the end of 2024, accounting for 83% of new installations [18][20] - The new materials industry is rapidly growing, with a total output value expected to exceed 8 trillion yuan by 2024, although about 30% of key high-end materials still rely on imports [29][30] Future Industries - Future industries represent cutting-edge directions, with a focus on quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, brain-computer interfaces, and embodied intelligence [61][62] - The quantum technology sector is expected to grow significantly, with the global market projected to reach nearly 1 trillion USD by 2035, driven by advancements in quantum communication and measurement [64][66] - The biomanufacturing industry is anticipated to maintain rapid growth, with a total scale of approximately 1.1 trillion yuan, although it faces challenges in high-end industrial strains and precision technology [69][70] Traditional Industries - The modernization of traditional industries is crucial for maintaining competitiveness in global industrial division, with a focus on enhancing the self-controllability of industrial chains [93][94] - The transformation of traditional industries includes promoting digitalization and green initiatives, as well as extending manufacturing into service-oriented solutions [93][94] - The integration of emerging technologies into traditional industries is expected to create a resilient modern industrial system, laying a decisive foundation for achieving the goal of becoming a manufacturing powerhouse by 2035 [96]