我国白银新政即将落地，全球供需格局或被重构

Core Viewpoint - The new silver export control policy in China, effective from January 1, 2026, will significantly impact the international silver market by reducing supply and elevating silver's status to a strategic resource [3][4]. Group 1: Policy Changes - China's new silver export control policy marks the transition of silver from an ordinary commodity to a strategic material, aligning its management with that of rare earths [3]. - The policy introduces a strict "one application, one review" licensing system for silver exports, requiring companies to have a minimum annual production of 80 tons (40 tons for western enterprises) and a three-year export track record to qualify [3]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the implementation of the new policy, silver exports are expected to decrease significantly, potentially reducing global annual supply by 4,500 to 5,000 tons [4]. - The global silver supply-demand gap reached 3,660 tons in 2025 and is projected to widen to 7,000 to 8,000 tons in 2026, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortage [4]. Group 3: Production and Costs - Global silver mine supply is estimated at approximately 31,788 tons in 2025, remaining stable compared to 2024, with production increases in Mexico and Russia offset by declines in Peru and Indonesia [4]. - The World Silver Association forecasts that the average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for silver will drop to $13 per ounce in the first half of 2025, the lowest since the first half of 2022, which may incentivize mining companies to increase production [4]. Group 4: Strategic Developments - Several countries, including the U.S., India, and others, have begun to classify silver as a critical mineral or strategic asset, which could further strain the already tight silver market [5]. - The outcome of the U.S. "Section 232 investigation," expected by January 17, 2026, may influence resource import tariffs, potentially exacerbating market tensions through increased competition for resources and trade disruptions [5].