我国白银新政即将落地，全球供需格局或被重构

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of China's new silver export control policy, which will take effect on January 1, 2026, marking silver as a strategic resource and upgrading its export management to a strict licensing system [3][4]. Group 1: Policy Changes - China's new silver export control policy will transition from a quota system to a stringent "one application, one review" licensing system, requiring companies to have a minimum annual production of 80 tons (40 tons for Western enterprises) and a three-year export track record to apply for export qualifications [3]. - The policy aims to position silver as a "rare metal," emphasizing its strategic importance, with management criteria including buyer background and compliance of usage [3][5]. Group 2: Market Impact - In 2025, China's silver export volume accounted for 23.4% of global trade, approximately 9,126 tons, and the new policy is expected to significantly reduce this volume, potentially decreasing global annual supply by 4,500 to 5,000 tons [4]. - The global silver supply-demand gap reached 3,660 tons in 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortage, with projections for 2026 indicating a further increase in the gap to 7,000 to 8,000 tons [4]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Despite the ongoing supply gap, improvements in scale are noted, with global silver mine supply expected to be around 31,788 tons in 2025, remaining stable compared to 2024 [5]. - The World Silver Association forecasts that the average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for silver will drop to $13 per ounce in the first half of 2025, the lowest since the first half of 2022, which may incentivize mining companies to increase production due to higher profit margins [5]. Group 4: Strategic Developments - Following the inclusion of silver in the critical mineral list in the U.S. in 2025, several countries, including India and the UAE, have also begun to classify silver as a strategic asset, which could further impact the already tight silver market [5]. - The results of the U.S. "232 investigation," expected by January 17, 2026, will influence resource import tariff policies, potentially exacerbating market tensions through increased resource competition and supply chain disruptions [6].