新年行情告终？投资者“获利了结”，金银重挫

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets experienced significant sell-offs after a strong year-end rebound, with traders cashing in profits leading to sharp price declines, marking the end of a recent upward trend [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Spot gold saw a drop of up to 5%, the largest single-day decline since October 21, and the second occurrence of such a significant drop this year [1]. - Silver's decline was even more severe, with intraday losses reaching 11%, the largest single-day drop since September 2020 [3]. - Both metals retreated significantly from their recent historical highs, raising concerns about an overheated market [5]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - The sell-off was primarily driven by investors taking profits after a strong seasonal rebound in gold and silver prices, which typically see robust increases before the New Year [5]. - Over the past decade, gold has risen approximately 4% during this period, while silver's gains are usually close to 7% [5]. Group 3: Technical Indicators - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated that gold had been in the overbought territory for the past two weeks, suggesting a potential correction was imminent [5]. - Silver's situation was more extreme, with a rise of over 25% since mid-December, and its RSI significantly exceeding 70, indicating excessive buying pressure [5]. Group 4: Speculative Environment and Margin Adjustments - The reversal in silver prices occurred shortly after they surged above $84 per ounce, driven by strong investment demand from China [6]. - The CME Group announced an increase in margin requirements for certain Comex silver futures contracts, which could force undercapitalized speculators to reduce or close their positions [6]. - The iShares Silver Trust, the largest physical silver ETF, also experienced a significant drop, with intraday losses reaching 10%, the largest since 2020 [6]. Group 5: Supply and Inventory Pressure - The recent silver rebound followed a period of severe pressure in the London silver market, which had faced a short squeeze just two months prior [7]. - Despite a recent influx of funds into London vaults, most available silver remains in New York, as traders await the results of a U.S. investigation that may lead to tariffs or other trade restrictions [7].