我国白银新政即将落地 全球供需格局或被重构

Core Viewpoint - The new silver export control policy in China, effective from January 1, 2026, will significantly impact the international silver market by reducing supply and altering the demand-supply dynamics, as silver is elevated to a strategic resource status [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - China's new silver export control policy marks the transition of silver from a "common commodity" to a "strategic material," aligning its management with that of rare earths [2]. - The policy introduces a strict "one application, one review" licensing system for silver exports, requiring companies to have an annual production of over 80 tons (40 tons for Western enterprises) and a three-year export track record to qualify [2]. - The approval process will scrutinize buyer backgrounds and compliance with usage, with controls expected to last until at least the end of 2027 [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - In 2025, China's silver export volume accounted for 23.4% of global trade, approximately 9,126 tons, and the new policy is expected to reduce this by 4,500 to 5,000 tons annually [3]. - The global silver supply-demand gap reached 3,660 tons in 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortage, with projections for 2026 indicating a potential increase in the gap to 7,000 to 8,000 tons [3]. - Despite the ongoing supply gap, improvements in scale have been noted compared to previous years [3]. Group 3: Production and Costs - Global silver mine supply is projected to be around 31,788 tons in 2025, remaining stable compared to 2024, with production increases in Mexico and Russia offset by declines in Peru and Indonesia [3]. - The World Silver Association forecasts that the average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for silver will drop to $13 per ounce in the first half of 2025, the lowest since the first half of 2022, as lower operational costs offset rising mining fees and taxes [3]. - The potential for significant profits due to rising silver prices and lower operational costs may incentivize mining companies to increase production, supported by sound capital management and rich mineral reserves [3]. Group 4: Global Trends - Following the U.S. inclusion of silver in its critical minerals list in 2025, several countries, including India, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Indonesia, have also recognized silver as a strategic asset [4]. - The outcome of the U.S. "232 investigation," expected by January 17, 2026, will influence resource import tariff policies, potentially intensifying global resource competition and exacerbating market shortages [4].