日内振幅超12%！白银创历史新高后大跳水 什么原因？

Core Viewpoint - Silver experienced extreme volatility on December 29, reaching a historical high of $83.971 per ounce before plummeting to a low of $74.215, resulting in a daily fluctuation of 12.3% [1]. Despite this, silver has shown an impressive year-to-date increase of over 160%, significantly outperforming gold's approximately 70% rise [1][2]. Price Movements - On December 29, London silver was reported at $75.177, down 5.23% for the day, while year-to-date it has increased by 160.25% [2]. COMEX silver also saw significant fluctuations, peaking at $82.67 and dropping to $73.71 [3]. Shanghai silver futures experienced a 10% rise before closing with only a 0.51% gain [3]. Market Dynamics - The volatility in silver prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including a recent increase in margin requirements by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which raised trading costs and prompted profit-taking among investors [3]. Analysts noted that the significant price movements were driven by a supply-demand imbalance, with strong physical silver demand leading to panic buying [4][5]. Supply and Demand Factors - The silver market is facing a structural supply issue, as production has not kept pace with demand, leading to a situation where demand has exceeded supply for five consecutive years [5]. Concerns about potential tariffs on silver and the depletion of inventories in major trading centers like London have further exacerbated the situation [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects for silver, citing factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increasing industrial demand for silver [4][5]. However, short-term risks are accumulating, with indications of market overheating and potential profit-taking ahead of the New Year [6][7]. The upcoming risk events in January, including Federal Reserve decisions and tariff investigations, could significantly impact market sentiment [7].