2025海外债市风云激荡：“宽松狂欢”到“分化定价”的全球变局

Core Viewpoint - The global bond market in 2025 experienced significant volatility as major central banks shifted from coordinated monetary policies to divergent strategies, reflecting deep concerns over fiscal sustainability and changing investor sentiment towards interest rates and country risk [1][2]. Group 1: Divergence in Monetary Policy - In 2025, major central banks exhibited the most pronounced divergence in policy since the financial crisis, which was a key driver of bond market volatility [2]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach led to a total rate cut of 75 basis points by year-end, influenced by cooling inflation and labor market weaknesses [2][3]. - The European Central Bank initially cut rates by 75 basis points but later paused due to inflation uncertainties and concerns over premature policy easing [3]. - The Bank of England aggressively cut rates by 150 basis points to stimulate demand amid a technical recession [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Yield Curves - The U.S. Treasury market acted as a "magnifier" of global sentiment, with the 10-year Treasury yield fluctuating between 3.9% and 4.8% throughout the year, characterized by three distinct phases [5][8]. - The first phase saw a decline in yields driven by rate cut expectations, with the 10-year yield dropping to a low of 3.99% [8]. - The second phase was marked by fiscal concerns and inflation anxiety, leading to significant yield fluctuations, with the 10-year yield rising back to 4.6% and 4.5% during the year [8][9]. - The third phase involved a narrowing of yield fluctuations as the market awaited new directions, with the yield ending the year at approximately 4.11% [9]. Group 3: Regional Market Characteristics - The Eurozone bond market faced challenges due to high debt levels and deficit rates, leading to increased risk premiums despite inflation returning to target levels [10][13]. - German 10-year bond yields rose from 2.36% to a peak of 2.938%, reflecting a total increase of about 47 basis points over the year [13]. - The UK bond market struggled with dual pressures of recession and fiscal concerns, with yields fluctuating around 4.49% by year-end [15]. - Japan's bond market underwent a historic shift as the Bank of Japan raised rates for the first time, with the 10-year yield increasing nearly 100 basis points to over 2% [18]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Evolution - Investors shifted from simple "buy and hold" strategies to more active management and tactical adjustments, focusing on high-frequency trading based on economic data and political events [19]. - The definition of "safe assets" evolved, with increased emphasis on credit analysis and fiscal sustainability becoming critical in assessing sovereign bonds [19]. - Duration management became cautious, with many investors adopting a "barbell strategy" to balance short-term and long-term bond investments [19].