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Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to set the 2026 RKAB quota at 250 million tons, a significant decrease of 34% from the 379 million tons in 2025, aiming to prevent further declines in nickel prices [1] Group 1: RKAB Quota and Market Dynamics - The 2026 RKAB quota is expected to create a supply gap of 57 million tons, as the estimated demand for nickel ore is at least 327 million wet tons [1] - Historical data shows that the Indonesian government has a tendency to approve higher RKAB quotas than initially planned, leading to a cautious outlook on the actual implementation of the quota reduction [2] - The anticipated RKAB quota for 2026 is expected to fall between 280 million to 320 million tons, influenced by short-term supply shortage expectations [2] Group 2: Nickel Pricing and Taxation Policies - A revised nickel reference price (HPM) calculation formula is set to be released in early 2026, which will classify cobalt as an independent commodity subject to royalties [3] - The introduction of a royalty on cobalt could potentially increase government revenue by approximately $600 million annually, even with a low cobalt content in nickel ore [3] - The cost increase for nickel production due to cobalt royalties is estimated to be between $65 to $371.43 per ton, depending on the royalty rate applied [3][4] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Projections - Recent policy expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions and cobalt taxation have led to a rapid rebound in nickel futures prices, with a notable V-shaped recovery observed [5] - Predictions indicate that Indonesia's MHP capacity will reach 850,000 metal tons in 2026, with a production increase of over 45%, potentially leading to further oversupply in the global nickel market [6] - The short-term price movements of nickel are expected to be driven by market sentiment, with limited upward potential unless more policies are implemented [6]