Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in Indonesia's RKAB quota and the anticipated taxation policy on cobalt have led to a rapid rebound in nickel prices, with the main contract reaching a peak of 130,880 yuan/ton, indicating a significant V-shaped reversal in technical patterns [1] Group 1: RKAB Quota Reduction - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to set the RKAB quota for 2026 at 250 million tons, a substantial decrease of 34% from 379 million tons in 2025, aimed at preventing further declines in nickel prices [1] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association Secretary General stated that this move reflects a clear intention to support nickel prices [1] - Data indicates that the demand for nickel ore in Indonesia for 2026 is estimated to be at least 327 million wet tons, leading to a projected supply gap of 57 million tons if the 250 million tons quota is implemented [1] Group 2: Quota Approval History - Historical patterns show that Indonesia's government has frequently revised RKAB quota approvals, with actual issuance often exceeding initial plans, as seen in 2025 where the approved quota reached 364 million tons despite an initial plan of 298 million tons [2] - There is a cautious outlook regarding the actual implementation of the current quota reduction, with expectations that the final quota may range between 280 million to 320 million tons [2] - Short-term supply shortage expectations are likely to continue influencing market dynamics and intensifying capital speculation [2] Group 3: Cobalt Taxation Policy - Indonesia plans to officially release a revised nickel reference price calculation formula in early 2026, which will classify cobalt as an independent commodity subject to royalties [3] - The potential taxation on cobalt could generate approximately $600 million annually for the Indonesian government, even with a minimal cobalt content in nickel ore [3] - The cost increase for nickel production due to cobalt taxation is estimated to be between $65 to $371.43 per ton, depending on the royalty rate applied [3] Group 4: Market Implications - Despite the increase in costs due to cobalt taxation, the actual net cost increase for integrated companies is expected to be limited, as they can offset costs through cobalt recovery [4] - The likelihood of the cobalt taxation policy being implemented is considered higher than that of the RKAB quota reduction, as historical execution of price policies has been more decisive [4] - Predictions indicate that Indonesia's MHP production capacity will reach 850,000 metal tons in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of over 85%, potentially leading to further oversupply in the global nickel market [4] - The recent strong rebound in nickel prices is driven by market sentiment, but further significant price increases may be limited without additional policy developments [4]
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Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-12-30 00:56