黄金短期波动风险上升，但长牛趋势不改

Core Viewpoint - The recent drop in gold prices follows a record high, but long-term bullish factors remain, with expectations that gold prices may exceed $5,000 per ounce by 2026 [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On Monday, London spot gold closed at $4,331.96 per ounce, down 4.4% from the previous day, and peaked at $4,550.52 per ounce during the session, marking a 4.8% decline [1]. - As of Tuesday at 8:00 AM Beijing time, gold was priced at $4,346.26, reflecting a slight increase of 0.3% [1]. - Since the beginning of 2025, London spot gold has risen by 65.6%, making it one of the best-performing asset classes globally [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The drop in gold prices was influenced by three main factors: an increase in margin requirements for gold futures by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, positive communication between the U.S. and Russia regarding conflict resolution, and a warning from Morgan Stanley about upcoming adjustments to the Bloomberg Commodity Index [2]. - Analysts believe that the recent pullback does not signify the end of the current gold bull market, as three supporting factors remain: the Federal Reserve's resumption of easing policies, declining confidence in the U.S. dollar, and escalating global geopolitical risks [2]. Group 3: Economic Context - The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary easing have been a primary driver of recent gold price increases, with a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points since September and expectations for two additional cuts in 2026 [3]. - The U.S. dollar has depreciated by approximately 10% this year, contributing to a favorable environment for gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising geopolitical tensions, including the situation in Venezuela and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [5]. - The current global economic environment is characterized by a Kondratiev wave downturn, with expectations of increased debt levels leading to a shift from fiat currency to metal-backed currency [5]. Group 4: Future Projections - Analysts project that gold prices could reach $4,900 per ounce by 2026, with some suggesting that prices may even exceed $5,000 per ounce [6]. - Peter Grant, a senior metal strategist, anticipates that gold prices could hit $5,000 per ounce as early as the first half of next year [6].