2026年全球黄金市场展望

Core Insights - The global gold market is expected to experience significant fluctuations in 2026, influenced by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and monetary policy changes. The gold price has already reflected market consensus on economic growth, inflation, and monetary policy expectations, indicating potential for range-bound trading [1][19][48]. Group 1: 2025 Gold Market Performance - In 2025, the gold market performed exceptionally well, with prices reaching over 50 historical highs and a cumulative increase of over 60%, marking it as one of the best-performing assets since 1971 [1][11]. - The strong performance was driven by multiple factors, including heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainties, a weaker dollar, and declining bond yields, leading investors to diversify their portfolios with gold [1][11][19]. Group 2: 2026 Market Outlook - The outlook for 2026 is uncertain, with three potential macroeconomic scenarios identified: mild recession, vicious cycle, and return of re-inflation, each affecting gold prices differently [2][19][21]. - In a mild recession scenario, gold prices could rise by 5% to 15% due to lower interest rates and a weaker dollar, supported by continued central bank purchases and new investment inflows [26][31]. - In a vicious cycle scenario, escalating geopolitical and economic risks could lead to a significant downturn, potentially pushing gold prices up by 15% to 30% as demand for safe-haven assets increases [2][31]. - Conversely, in a return of re-inflation scenario, rising interest rates and a stronger dollar could lead to a decline in gold prices by 5% to 20% due to increased opportunity costs and shifting risk preferences [35][36]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand and Supply Dynamics - Central bank demand for gold remains a crucial support factor, with emerging market central banks expected to increase their gold purchases, particularly in response to geopolitical tensions [37][40]. - The supply of recycled gold is currently low due to increased use of gold as collateral for loans, particularly in India, which could impact market dynamics if economic conditions worsen [44][46]. Group 4: Investment Demand and Market Sentiment - Investment demand, particularly from gold ETFs, is anticipated to play a significant role in driving gold prices, with current holdings showing potential for growth [31][32]. - The overall sentiment in the gold market is shaped by ongoing economic uncertainties, with gold continuing to serve as a key tool for portfolio diversification and risk protection [48][49].