白银骤跌，交易员四处找原因，高盛亚洲交易台：“没有确凿证据”

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices experienced a sharp decline after initially breaking the $80 per ounce mark, ending a recent upward trend, with traders struggling to identify a single catalyst for the drop, indicating a correction in extreme market sentiment [1] Group 1: Market Movements - On Monday, silver prices surged above $84 before plummeting, nearly erasing early gains, and ultimately closing up only 0.51%. Other precious metals like platinum and palladium also faced significant declines, with gold dropping 0.91% [3] - The reversal in silver prices occurred against a backdrop of increased investment demand from China, where the premium for physical silver in Shanghai exceeded $8 over London prices, marking a historical high [3] - Despite the volatility, Goldman Sachs noted that there was no "definitive shorting reason" for the market's behavior, suggesting that liquidity issues during the holiday period and increased margin requirements contributed to the price correction [3][4] Group 2: Speculation and Regulation - The current speculative atmosphere is seen as a key driver of recent market activity, with analysts noting that speculation around tight physical supply has become extreme [5] - Regulatory tightening is having a cooling effect on the market, as CME announced an increase in margin requirements for certain Comex silver futures contracts from $3.2 to $4.4 per ounce [5] - The tightening measures from the Guangxi Futures Exchange (GFEX) aim to curb excessive trading in palladium and platinum [5] Group 3: Technical Indicators - Market structure and technical indicators suggest a necessary correction, with the PFR ExtremeHurst model signaling a top exhaustion for silver, similar to signals that accurately predicted an 11% correction in gold in October [7] - There was a notable liquidation trend on Monday, with 40,000 contracts sold throughout the day, despite ETFs purchasing 13 million ounces of silver between December 19 and 26 [9] - The increase in margin requirements may have contributed to the sell-off, as funds likely began to reduce long positions amid high volatility and elevated prices [9]