浙商证券：2026年煤炭价格中枢抬升 建议围绕两条主线布局

Core Viewpoint - The coal supply is expected to peak in 2025 and then decline, with resilient demand leading to a V-shaped price recovery. The outlook for 2026 indicates stable domestic economic conditions, with a balanced supply-demand dynamic and an upward shift in coal price levels [1][6]. Group 1: Supply Analysis - In 2025, the national raw coal production reached 3.973 billion tons from January to October, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. The production trend shows a peak in the first half of the year followed by a decline in growth from July to October [2]. - Coal imports from January to October 2025 totaled 388 million tons, a decrease of 11% year-on-year. After initial growth, the monthly import rate turned negative starting in March [2]. Group 2: Demand Analysis - The total coal consumption in China from January to October 2025 was approximately 4.24 billion tons, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1%. The demand is supported by strong consumption in the chemical and steel sectors [4]. - By sector, chemical coal consumption was 360 million tons (up 10.9% year-on-year), steel coal consumption was 590 million tons (up 0.2%), while construction material coal consumption was 400 million tons (down 4.9%), and electricity coal consumption was 2.35 billion tons (down 1.1%) [4]. Group 3: Price Trends - Coal prices experienced a V-shaped recovery, with prices for thermal coal, coking coal, and anthracite starting at 767, 1520, and 980 yuan per ton respectively at the beginning of the year, dropping to lows of 609, 1230, and 820 yuan per ton, and rebounding to 816, 1670, and 930 yuan per ton by November 28 [5]. - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal decreased from 693 yuan per ton at the start of the year to a low of 666 yuan per ton in July, before rising to 684 yuan per ton by November [5]. Group 4: 2026 Outlook - The policy environment in 2026 will focus on balancing production limits with supply guarantees, with measures to stabilize energy production and supply [6]. - Coal consumption is projected to reach 4.95 billion tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 1%, primarily driven by demand from the electricity and chemical sectors. Production is expected to slightly increase to 4.87 billion tons, with demand growth outpacing supply growth, leading to an upward shift in coal price levels [9].