反内卷与贸易壁垒下，有色金属供给难放量、价格难回落

Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry is facing a structural contradiction between supply contraction and demand expansion due to the dual backdrop of global economic restructuring and industrial upgrading [1] Group 1: Domestic "Anti-Competition" Policies - The domestic "anti-competition" policy aims to actively reduce ineffective supply and upgrade the industry structure rather than merely shrinking capacity [1] - Since the initiation of supply-side reforms in 2015, policies have been implemented to reshape the industry ecology through a combination of prohibiting new capacity, clearing illegal operations, and enforcing environmental regulations [2] - The optimization of the supply structure for core products like copper and aluminum has reduced supply elasticity, laying a foundation for price stability [2] Group 2: Overseas Trade Barriers - Global trade protectionism and geopolitical conflicts have increased the difficulty of resource acquisition in the non-ferrous metals sector [3] - Policies in the U.S. and Europe have raised cross-border trade costs, with shipping costs for copper from Chile to China increasing by nearly 40% over five years, leading to a more than 15% increase in end-user prices [3] - Resource-rich countries are tightening supply, with Indonesia banning nickel ore exports and Mexico nationalizing lithium mines, contributing to a 25% increase in the global cobalt supply gap and a 37% monthly rise in cobalt prices [3] Group 3: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - LME copper inventory in Europe has significantly decreased from nearly 70,000 tons in April 2025 to 14,475 tons by December 17, 2025, indicating tight supply conditions [3] - In contrast, COMEX copper inventory has risen from under 100,000 short tons to 456,900 short tons during the same period, highlighting a shift in global copper liquidity towards the U.S. [3] - Domestic copper inventory has also dropped to around 110,000 tons by the end of 2025, reflecting reduced supply elasticity under the "anti-competition" policy and increased difficulty in acquiring overseas resources [4] Group 4: Resilient Demand and Emerging Fields - The demand for non-ferrous metals remains robust, supported by both traditional and emerging sectors [5] - The traditional power sector benefits from ongoing investments in the power grid, maintaining stable demand for metals like copper and aluminum [5] - Emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and renewable energy are driving significant demand growth for non-ferrous metals, while high-end fields like semiconductors and military applications are experiencing rigid demand increases [5] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The pricing logic for non-ferrous metals is being reshaped due to ongoing supply constraints, with prices expected to maintain solid support [5] - The non-ferrous ETF (159980.SZ) tracks the non-ferrous metals index and has reached a new high in scale at 4.399 billion yuan and 2.172 billion shares, reflecting strong investor interest [6] - The non-ferrous ETF has seen continuous net inflows totaling 1.385 billion yuan over the past 23 days, indicating a growing appetite for investment in this sector [6]