落户限制放宽，超90%城市落户进入“低门槛时代”

Core Viewpoint - The recent report from the State Council regarding the establishment of a sound urban-rural integration development system indicates a significant shift in the household registration system, aiming to relax residency restrictions in most cities, which is expected to support housing demand in the real estate market [1][2][10]. Group 1: Urban-Rural Integration and Residency Policy - The report sets a tone for the household registration system by proposing to relax residency restrictions in all but a few super-large cities, which will lower the barriers for residency in most cities [2][10]. - Over 90% of cities will enter a "low-threshold residency" era, with cities having a permanent population of less than 3 million essentially eliminating residency restrictions [3][4]. - The State Council's plan emphasizes the need to promote urban-rural integration over the next five years, with a clear directive to relax residency restrictions outside of the seven super-large cities [3][10]. Group 2: Impact on Real Estate Market - The reduction in residency barriers is expected to bolster housing demand, as population growth and urbanization are fundamental to real estate needs [2][5]. - The urbanization rate is projected to increase from 67% in 2024 to nearly 70% by 2028, indicating a continued influx of urban residents, although the pace of growth has slowed compared to previous decades [6][9]. - The real estate market may face challenges due to a shrinking scale of incremental urban population growth, with annual increases expected to stabilize around 10.8 million, compared to over 20 million before 2020 [9][10]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite the slowdown in urbanization growth, the process of urbanizing the agricultural population will continue, maintaining a fundamental demand for housing in the real estate sector [6][9]. - The potential for real estate development remains significant, particularly in county areas, where urbanization rates can grow rapidly, leading to substantial housing demand [9][10].