STARTRADER：澳元兑美元逼近14个月高位，关键阻力如何突破？

Group 1 - The market's expectation for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates has strengthened, supporting the Australian dollar [2] - The RBA's December meeting minutes indicate increased uncertainty regarding the sufficiency of current monetary policy restrictions, with a focus on the upcoming CPI report on January 28 [2] - Analysts suggest that if the core inflation data for Q4 exceeds expectations, it may trigger a rate hike at the RBA's meeting on February 3 [2] Group 2 - The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 83.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in January, up from 80.1% a week prior, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has decreased from 19.9% to 16.1% [3] - Recent U.S. unemployment data indicates initial jobless claims fell from 224,000 to 214,000, better than the expected 223,000, while continuing claims rose from 1.885 million to 1.923 million [3] - The U.S. GDP annualized growth for Q3 was reported at 4.3%, surpassing market expectations of 3.3% and higher than the previous quarter's growth of 3.8% [3] Group 3 - Australia's December consumer inflation expectations rose from 4.5% in November to 4.7%, reinforcing the RBA's hawkish stance [4] - The Australian dollar is testing the psychological resistance level of 0.6700 against the U.S. dollar, with positive performance above the 9-day moving average [4][6] - If the Australian dollar breaks below the 9-day moving average at 0.6681, it may open up space for adjustment towards the six-month low of 0.6414 [6]