Bei Jing Shang Bao·2025-12-30 02:45Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector experienced a significant value reassessment throughout 2025, culminating in a total market capitalization exceeding 15.65 trillion yuan, marking a notable recovery and growth phase for the industry [1][3]. Market Performance - The Wind Banking Index recorded a cumulative increase of 12.06% for the year, with 42 listed banks achieving a total market value growth of 15.37% compared to the end of 2024 [3][8]. - Agricultural Bank of China emerged as the standout performer with a remarkable stock price increase of 51.86%, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in total market value [1][3]. - 35 out of 42 listed banks saw their stock prices rise, with several regional banks like Xiamen Bank and Chongqing Bank also posting gains exceeding 20% [3][8]. Valuation Dynamics - The banking sector's average price-to-book ratio improved from a range of 0.33-0.99 at the end of 2024 to some banks briefly exceeding 1.0 in October 2025, indicating a reduction in the "broken net" phenomenon [5][9]. - Despite the average price-to-book ratio remaining at 0.62, the trend shows significant improvement, although concerns about long-term profitability and credit cost pressures persist [5][10]. Policy and Economic Environment - The central bank's monetary policies, including interest rate cuts and structural loans, provided a supportive environment for banks, enhancing market confidence in asset quality [9][10]. - Regulatory adjustments facilitated increased inflows of long-term capital from insurance and pension funds into the banking sector, further supporting the value reassessment [9][10]. Future Outlook - The banking sector's value reassessment is expected to continue into 2026, driven by macroeconomic stabilization, ongoing supportive policies, and confirmation of profit growth [11][12]. - The market may see a shift from broad-based gains to a more differentiated performance, with large banks and high-quality regional banks attracting investor interest due to their stable dividends and solid fundamentals [12].