STARTRADER：下一任美联储主席将是谁？市场关注独立性影响

Core Viewpoint - The discussion regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair has become a market focus, with President Trump indicating he has a preferred candidate to be announced in January [1]. Group 1: Potential Candidates - Potential candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair include Kevin Hassett, Kevin Walsh, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, and Rick Rieder [3]. - Market participants have mixed reactions, with concerns that candidates closely tied to the White House may affect confidence in the independence of monetary policy [3]. Group 2: Current Chair and Implications - Current Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, and he may continue on the Board until 2028. Trump has criticized Powell's monetary policy and may consider removing him [3]. - If Powell remains on the Board after his term, he cannot appoint new Board members, potentially impacting the future structure of the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Concerns - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate in its last three meetings, with indications that there may only be one rate cut in 2026 [3]. - There are concerns that an aggressive rate cut by a new Chair could alter inflation expectations and increase long-term bond yields, affecting the long-term bond market [3]. Group 4: Importance of Independence - Historical experience shows that the market reacts more positively to candidates who maintain monetary policy independence, reflecting investor preference for predictability and stability [4]. - The selection of the Federal Reserve Chair is a significant factor influencing future monetary policy direction, with market confidence heavily reliant on the continuity and independence of monetary policy [4].