高盛2025影响全球宏观经济的四大核心主题：全球经济真要变天了？

Core Themes - The report outlines four major themes impacting the global economy in 2025: tariff waves and trade shocks, AI frenzy and the rise of stablecoins, institutional credibility facing a "trust crisis," and geopolitical rifts alongside technological competition [1][7]. Group 1: Tariff Waves and Trade Shocks - The re-election of Donald Trump has led to a significant shift in U.S. trade policy, with tariffs sharply increasing and causing global trade tensions [6]. - The uncertainty index regarding trade policies has reached historical highs, complicating corporate decision-making [6]. - Historical patterns suggest that large-scale trade conflicts often precede economic recessions, raising market concerns [6]. Group 2: AI Frenzy and Rise of Stablecoins - Investment in AI continues to surge, particularly in semiconductor and cloud computing sectors, with major companies significantly increasing capital expenditures [6]. - There are ongoing discussions about potential AI bubbles, especially as stock performance of major tech companies becomes closely tied to AI narratives [6]. - The passage of the GENIUS Act has provided a regulatory framework for stablecoins, facilitating their market expansion and clearer business models [6]. Group 3: Institutional Credibility and Trust Crisis - Concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability and the reliability of economic data have led to rising bond yields and increased interest in "currency debasement" trades [6]. - The U.S. deficit and debt as a percentage of GDP are at historical highs outside of crisis periods, raising alarms about fiscal health [6]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with political pressures affecting its monetary policy [6]. Group 4: Geopolitical Rifts and Technological Competition - The ongoing stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine war has prompted Europe to bolster its defense spending, although internal structural issues remain [6]. - The U.S.-China tech rivalry is intensifying, particularly in critical areas like semiconductors and rare earths, with both nations striving for strategic dominance [6]. - Ensuring self-sufficiency in key technologies and supply chain resilience has become a core strategic goal for both countries [6].