打破华尔街预期，“中国央行稳住货币政策”

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has adopted a cautious approach in response to changing economic conditions and U.S. trade policies, with only a minimal interest rate cut of 10 basis points this year, the smallest since 2021, contrasting with higher expectations from financial institutions for a more significant reduction [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points from the previous period [1]. - Analysts attribute the stability of the LPR to strong export performance and rapid development in new productive sectors, which have supported economic resilience against external pressures, allowing for a projected annual growth rate of around 5% [1][3]. - The PBOC has shifted focus from broad monetary easing to more unconventional measures, including targeted liquidity injections and support for the stock market, while maintaining a stable policy rate [4][6]. Group 2: Future Expectations and Economic Strategy - Economists predict that the PBOC may implement a cumulative interest rate cut of 20 basis points and a 50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 2026, although some institutions believe key policy rates may remain unchanged throughout that year [6][8]. - The central bank's reluctance to lower rates significantly is influenced by concerns over bank profitability and the stability of the banking sector, as further cuts could exacerbate vulnerabilities amid rising non-performing loans [6][7]. - Fiscal policy is expected to take precedence in 2026, with a focus on structural reforms and increased government spending to address consumption challenges, indicating a departure from reliance on macroeconomic easing to solve structural issues [8].