数字人民币计息时代来了

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has introduced an action plan to transition digital renminbi from a cash-based system to a deposit currency system, set to be implemented on January 1, 2026, allowing interest to be paid on digital renminbi wallet balances [2][3][4] Group 1: Digital Renminbi Transition - The digital renminbi will shift from being classified as M0 (cash in circulation) to a deposit currency, which will allow it to earn interest, thus enhancing its appeal to users [3][4] - The new framework will enable banks to pay interest on customer digital renminbi wallet balances based on their respective current deposit rates, aligning with market expectations [2][4] - This transition is expected to improve the willingness of individuals and markets to use digital renminbi, as it addresses concerns about inflation and the time value of money [3][4] Group 2: Banking Sector Implications - The adjustment will transform digital renminbi from a direct liability of the central bank to a liability of commercial banks, integrating it into their balance sheets [4][6] - Banks will gain the ability to manage digital renminbi assets and liabilities, shifting their role from cost centers to profit centers, which is anticipated to enhance their motivation to promote digital renminbi [7][6] - The new system will allow for a more efficient management of digital renminbi, leveraging traditional account payment efficiencies while incorporating innovative features like smart contracts [4][6] Group 3: Regulatory Framework - The action plan establishes a "separation of management and operation" principle, creating a management committee to oversee digital renminbi operations and ensure regulatory compliance [11][12] - The plan aims to enhance the regulatory framework for non-bank payment institutions, ensuring consistency in the management of digital renminbi and customer funds [5][12] - Future pilot programs for digital renminbi will shift from geographic trials to scenario-based trials, with an emphasis on expanding operational institutions under controlled risks [12][11] Group 4: Market Impact - The digital renminbi's usage is expected to expand significantly, with transaction volumes projected to reach 34.8 billion by November 2025, amounting to over 16.7 trillion yuan [9] - The digital renminbi's integration into the banking system is anticipated to facilitate its application across various sectors, supporting the broader economy and enhancing consumer spending [12][9] - The transition is also seen as a strategic move to solidify China's position in the global central bank digital currency landscape [9][10]