美国又出事！政府可能再次停摆，为保住中期选举，特朗普下死命令

Core Viewpoint - The recent actions of Trump, including warnings about a potential government shutdown and plans to replace the Federal Reserve Chairman, are strategically linked to his political and economic objectives, impacting both domestic governance and global markets. Group 1: Government Shutdown Concerns - Trump has highlighted the risk of a government shutdown, leveraging the ongoing budget disputes between the two parties, particularly in healthcare and defense funding, which could lead to legislative stagnation [5][6][10] - If no consensus is reached by January 30, 2026, the U.S. government may face another shutdown, which Trump is using to focus on voter issues like prices and energy costs ahead of the midterm elections [6][8] - The historical context of the 2025 government shutdown illustrates the significant impact such events can have on public services and government operations [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Chairman Replacement - Trump plans to announce a new Federal Reserve Chairman in January, with four potential candidates, aiming to influence monetary policy towards his preference for lower interest rates to alleviate government debt pressure [8][12] - The current debt of the U.S. government exceeds $38 trillion, and Trump believes that lowering the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate could save the government significant interest payments [11] - The potential replacement of the Fed Chairman raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the implications for financial market stability [11][17] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The interplay between the risk of a government shutdown and the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership could lead to increased volatility in financial markets, affecting global capital flows [14][15] - If interest rates are lowered significantly, it may lead to capital inflows into emerging markets, potentially creating asset bubbles [14][16] - Conversely, if the anticipated rate cuts do not materialize, it could result in capital returning to the U.S., exerting pressure on emerging markets [16]