2025从NDC和全球碳市场角度：如何看待光伏行业的未来趋势

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the future of the photovoltaic (PV) industry is significantly influenced by Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global carbon market, indicating a shift in growth logic [1][2] - The long-term growth of the PV industry is primarily driven by global climate action, particularly through ambitious NDCs submitted by major economies like China and the EU, which provide sustained policy support and market space for renewable energy [2][3] - Despite short-term concerns about overcapacity, the long-term demand based on NDC commitments remains solid, with China's annual new PV installation capacity expected to stay high [2][3] Group 2 - The report highlights that the deepening of electricity market reforms presents significant opportunities for the PV industry, as market mechanisms can effectively guide the integration of PV with storage, grid, and demand-side resources, optimizing the economic and reliability aspects of the power system [3][4] - The transition to a market-oriented environment will enhance the environmental value of green electricity, with the ongoing development of the global carbon market facilitating economic returns from low-carbon attributes [3][4] Group 3 - Technological innovation is identified as the key driver for market differentiation and healthy industry clearing, with a shift from scale expansion to a focus on improving conversion efficiency and reducing system costs [4][6] - The report notes that N-type silicon battery technologies are rapidly replacing traditional P-type batteries, while perovskite/silicon tandem battery technologies are seen as potential leaders for the next generation of industry transformation [4][6] Group 4 - From a global perspective, the report indicates that once the share of wind and solar power in the system exceeds a critical threshold (15%-20%), the shape and investment focus of the power system will change, necessitating significant upgrades and interconnections in the grid [5][6] - The future growth of the PV industry will be closely tied to the construction of new power systems, with increased investments in grid infrastructure and cross-regional carbon market mechanisms creating conditions for broader PV adoption and value realization [5][6] Group 5 - Overall, the future development of the PV industry transcends mere manufacturing cost competition, embedding itself within the larger narratives of global climate governance, power system transformation, carbon pricing mechanisms, and ongoing technological revolutions [6][9] - The industry's competitiveness will increasingly depend on technological leadership, system integration capabilities, and the ability to capitalize on channels for realizing green value [6][9]